Based on the strength of the shortwave, we believed initially the cap was going to break violently resulting in several explosive supercells. A moderate risk was forecast by the SPC for much of Nebraska, C/E Kansas, NW Missouri, and W. Iowa. The mention of very damaging tornadoes was listed, especially across Nebraska, and N.Kansas. We left Torrington WY early in the morning and headed to get to our target area by late morning just in case of early development. Our initial target area was going to be the area between Kearney NE and Concordia KS. This area was in the left front quad of the jet, and where the 850/500 mb jets were in balance. Also, this area would have incredible convergence ahead of the surface low. A very interesting note from the previous day's chase-the majority of the upper support
was remaining further to the west across the High Plains, and this was a sure sign that Wednesday's main action was going to be further west than the forecast models were showing. It also indicated that the cap was going to be alot more of a factor.
We did not recognize this at first, but as the day progressed, it became very clear as to what was happening.
We made great time in getting to the Kearney NE area on I-80. Along the way, we noticed very strong warm air advection in the Ogallala NE area. Heavy drizzle and dense fog was seen between Oshkosh and Ogallala. In fact by the time we reached Ogallala, we had ripping fog back to the west as 20-35 mph winds were blowing very dense fog westward. This was one sure sign that things were setting up further west than the models were showing. In fact (hindsight) this should have alerted us that the
possibility of tornadoes was going to be as far west as the NE Colorado area near the deepening surface/850 mb lows. We were impressed by how deep the warm advection was. At the surface, winds were due east, and up above the clouds were racing west-northwest. Again in hindsight, if this area could get any heating, the tornado potential would be very high.Temps were in the mid 60's with matching dew points, so there was plenty of fuel for supercells in the High Plains. By the time we reached I-80, the temp had risen to near 70, and there were some breaks in the
cloud deck/precip that would make the sky very bright almost blinding at times.
We headed east on I-80 towards C.Nebraska and our target area. The further east
we traveled, the scarier the sky looked. Very large breaks in the clouds started occurring near North Platte, and the temperature jumped into the lower 70's. The
dew point also was higher the further east we went on I-80. I was very concerned
that the North Platte area would be primed for supercells too, and I mentioned this
to Brian. He agreed with me especially with the deep east flow at the surface and lower levels. To see heating already at North Platte was certainly sign that things were going to be pretty nasty later in the day. The west edge of the moderate risk was along a line from McCook-North Platte-Mullen NE, and this surely represented the far west edge of low-mid 60 dew points. We had quite a discussion about the North Platte area being an interesting area later. We decided eventually this area
may get pinched off from the instability, similar to what situation had occurred on April 8, 1999 when another extremely deep surface low was over Nebraska. The
April 8th SW IA tornado event sure gave us some pointers on how to deal with
these super deep surface lows. This helped us later in the chase that's for sure!!
The weather was in a rapid spin mode by late morning. A very deep surface low (29.20) was located near Akron CO(NE Colorado) with a sharp warm front located east to near Concordia(NC Kansas), and double dry line situation developing over W.Kansas. The forecast models all showed the surface low was going to deepen even further(gulp) and move towards SC Nebraska(oh-oh). Major tornadic
supercells appeared to be very likely across S.Nebraska and N.Kansas. One thing
for sure, today was going to be rapidly changing and the tendency for instability wrapping westward north of the surface low was also going to be quite likely. We planned to head to Elm Creek NE to a truck stop that we went to last June to call
up weather data. This was a great place because it had tables, phone jacks, eats,
and gas(not related to the eats). This stop was also very near our target area on
I-80, with good roads in all directions. We pulled in around 11:30, and already we saw a few chasers congregating. Later the chaser city would grow to nearly 30 at
the truck stop! I had a very hard time getting a good connection, but the data I was able to pull up, showed that the cap was northbound from Kansas. Not good!!
Chasers from all over soon gathered around trying to get on the web to pull up weather data. Not a critical time of the day for development, but certainly a critical time for forecasting. As we struggled to get connected, the warm front over Kansas started to bow north, and would soon surge up to I-80. We knew this was both good and bad for later supercells. Good because it would get the warm front into a less capped airmass allowing for storms to erupt. The bad thing was the cap was
northbound and down. This might possibly cap off all of Kansas and a big area of Nebraska, particularly if the warm front gets deep into Nebraska. Oddly enough (more hindsight) this situation was favoring the North Platte area even more since
the cap was increasing over C.Nebraska. The focus would now be WC/SW Nebraska where the mid level cooling would be the strongest and able to break the cap. The shear out there would also be very strong. The majority thinking among chasers was that the cap would give way across SC Nebraska and NC Kansas as the negatively tilted shortwave pivoted northeast. Brian and I were also in agreement, but we
also had in the back of our minds, that the McCook and N.Platte areas may also be
in great danger today. An earlier discussion with Steve Nelson (Tulsa NWS) also helped us a great deal in considering the McCook-N.Platte scenario. This made sense because it would be less capped and in the area of extreme forcing. This region would definitely be at the nose of the left front quad of the mid level jet. At
any rate, we decided the best option was to hold near Holdredge in case of the cap breaking over NC Kansas. The conditions(other than the strong cap) looked very favorable for strong tornadoes over SC Nebraska. One item of interest that was occuring while we waited for the storms to pop. Warm air had wrapped around the north quadrant of the surface low and several tornadic supercells were forming
over Morgan, Washington, Morgan, and Yuma Counties in NE Colorado. Many
tornadoes (some damaging) were reported on the ground.
We pulled over near the Furnas/Kearney Co. line in SC Nebraska, and were later
joined by other chasers. A tornado watch soon was issued by the SPC and a few damaging/destructive tornadoes were mentioned. The tornado watch was for Nebraska only, but they did advise that a tornado watch was also to be issued shortly for Kansas as well. As we waited(and waited) for storms to erupt, the
surface low was moving northeast towards the McCook NE area. It was starting to "bomb-out" so it was only a matter of an hour before things got really bad for the general public across Nebraska and Kansas. A dryline bulge was very evident on satellite and surface data from the Imperial NE southeastward to near Hill City. Towering cu formed along the dryline that was starting to surge northeast right for us. Gundgy premature convection had fired over Kansas and the remnants were in the process of moving out as the mid-level winds strengthened. Fortunately, the cap crushed this premature stuff, otherwise it may have ruined the airmass everywhere with rain-cooled/stable air. The thermal ridge was aimed right for us and extended
from near Garden City KS to between McCook and Hastings NE. We were in the
favorable northeast quad of this ridge, but were also capping off even more. After reviewing the data after the chase, the 850mb winds were veering majorly during
the afternoon all across Kansas and C/E Nebraska. This was allowing the hot cap
air to advect/move into our location.
We watched the skies clear out rapidly as the a strong southwest jet moved in. Temps skyrocketed from the mid 70's under the gundgy canopy of leftover cloud debris, to the mid 80's between Hill City KS and our holding spot. Two areas
started to hint at developing convection. The dryline bulge started to slowly pop
with a few small storms from Imperial NE to northeast of Goodland KS. Meanwhile, towering cu quickly started to form on the warm front that was aligned sw-ne. We watched these closely on radar(finally connected). The storms to the south formed quickly, and the storms over SW Nebraska slowly back built down the dryline into NW Kansas. Both areas developed slowly, with the more rapid storm development about 20-30 miles south of us. Initially, the storms closest to us looked great. Very diffluent anvils, vertical storm towers, and inflow bands. However in the span of about an hour, these storms went from about an 8 to about a 2 on a scale from 1-10 with 1 being poor. Apparently the cap had this area under control, and the strong
mid level winds very quickly ripped the main updrafts apart and pushed the storms
to their demise. Interestingly enough, the storms over SW Nebraska did not have
that problem. Immediately the warning bells went off to both Brian and I. Get west and get on the uncapped storms or BUST!!!
We grabbed one last radar image off the Goodland radar, and it showed the storms
were holding their own. The most interesting storm to us was a small but highly
sheared storm developing near Oberlin KS. This storm already had signs of rotation
and was on the dryline bulge immediately northeast of the intense surface low.
After getting things organized, we headed west on U.S. Highway 6 towards McCook.
The track was going to be well east of McCook so we figured an intercept near
the town of Cambridge. Actually, we would luck out on this intercept. There was
another already severe storm on the KS/NE border moving into Red Willow Co. NE.
Hail up to golfball sized had been reported. In this type of situation, you have
to react to ongoing/sustained convection or completely bust. As favorable as
the conditions may have appeared initially, things were now alot more harsh and
negative for supercells anywhere away from the dryline. The cap had surged in
and squelched any hopes for at least tornadic supercells over Kansas and SC/SE
Nebraska. We passed through Arapahoe NE and saw many chasers pulled over watching the small/intense dryline storms. A new severe t-storm warning was
issued for the storm we targeted. Meanwhile the storm closer to Mc Cook had slowed down. I think we found the jet split!! Brian and I high fived after seeing this
on the radar. Now it was time to watch these closely, very very closely!!
As we closed in on the town of Cambridge NE on the Furnas-Red Willow Co. line,
we had both storms bases within view. The northern storm had a fairly large updraft vault and was located about 3-4 miles w-sw of Cambridge. The southern storm was very small, but was visibly rotating even from 8-10 miles to it's north. As with most situations of 2 storms in this very close proximity of each other, you have to remain alert for the possibility of either a cell merger or the southern storm taking over and stealing all the inflow. We could see the large hailshaft to our west, and also started to get hailed on by the southern storm with dime sized hail. From this point on, we
lost our cellular connection and had no weather data. We listened to a good radio
station out of Lexington NE that kept us informed of warnings. We pulled over for some pictures and video west of Cambridge. The bases were still high, but we
could see that there was some lowering of a developing wall cloud near Bartley to our northwest. This separate supercell situation continued as both lifted northward. We positioned ourselves in between the two and took a dirt road north to Strunk Lake. This would allow us to watch both updrafts but also would put us under the rain/hailcore of the southern storm. Both storms were now officially severe as new severe t-storm warnings were issued. Hail larger than golfballs was possible with the northern supercell. I classify these as legitimate supercells at this point as the bases looked to be rooted in the boundary layer now.
We progressed north with the storms and with the help of the De Lorme Nebraska Mapbook, were able to maneuver through the rural roads without losing sight of
both updraft bases. We also saw a group of locals chasing near the lake. They
went on west for some reason, but the storms continued to move north, possibly
a little northwest at 30-35 mph. Both storms looked just like big hail storms at this point, although the southern storm had strong rotation at mid-levels based on the laminar striations. Item of note: the southern storm eventually went on to produce
the Brady F3 tornado, and visually, it had the best look of rotation the whole time.
We tracked across the open country into Frontier Co. finally getting our first golfball hail thuds on the car. Almost the whole time we were getting rain/small hail from the southern storm up to this point. We pulled over to watch both storms again. Both were strongly rotating supercells now. In fact the storms were becoming almost aligned side by side(east-west). The now western storm was developing a large substantial wall cloud with cloud tags/scud underneath. The eastern storm had tendrils of mid-level vortices spinning around the north side of the updraft tower
that was becoming barrel shaped and very laminar. We decided to head into Stockville (Frontier Co.) to get a road option north. A tornado warning was issued
for a storm we could not see about 10-15 miles northwest of the Stockville supercell. We figured that if that storm was ready to produce a tornado, the storms we were watching would soon too. We had both in sight so if one supercell did become tornadic, we could see both at the same time. The roads were very muddy and
tricky as far as driving, but at this stage of the game you have to stay with the updrafts. The two storms were continuing to organize and develop circulations.
North of Stockville, we started to notice large amounts of hail on the road. Quarter sized mostly, but a few golfball hailstones were on the ground. We figured that this fell from the western supercell since we were slightly ahead of the hail core from
the eastern supercell. We continued north and noticed that the western storm was starting to cycle, or in better terms was about to drop a tornado. A very powerful
rear flank downdraft plowed into the updraft, and numerous small circulations developed under the udraft. Some were very strong cyclonic, but the strongest
were ANTI-CYCLONIC. These ringlets spun madly, and the town of Moorefield looked to be very near this violent rotation. We started noticing copious amounts
of hail (mostly golfball sized) on the road as we came into the town of Moorefield (Lincoln Co.). A tornado warning was issued for Lincoln Co. for 2 circulations. One was to our northwest near Wellfleet, and the other was our storm near Moorefield.
We could see what looked to be an occluded circulation to the northwest of Moorefield. This was immediately west of where the RFD plowed into the storm
and scalloped out the supercell's back side/south side. Very strong rotation was
seen on this occlusion about 3-4 miles n-nw of Moorefield. Very quickly, a fairly
wide but weak (F0) tornado came down to the ground to our west. It started with a large/broad funnel cloud, and quickly corkscrewed to the ground. The tornado remained pretty much stationary and was soon joined by another weak tornado to
it's south. There were now 2 tornadoes on the ground and violent cloud motions above the tornadoes. Was another one going to make a hat-trick? As rapid as the cloud motions were, this sure seemed possible. Another tornado tried to come
down but was absorbed by the initial tornado. The tornadoes remained a pair until dissipating 5 minutes later. Okay now things were getting very interesting!! We still watched the eastern supercell that was now growing larger, but was still nearly all rotating updraft. It was spitting golfball hail on us as we watched the western supercell's tornadoes. I guess you could say it was a notecard saying "What about me??". Weirder things have happened so we watched that supercell even closer!!
As it stood, we were down to one road option through some very rugged canyon lands between Moorefield and Brady. Since the storm movement was still north,
and more tornadoes were imminent, we took the road. Basically, the supercells traveled right up that road. One supercell was about 3-5 miles west of the road,
and the other was about 2 miles east of the north-south road. Talk about a chasers dream. Only one thing might make it a nightmare though. The eastern supercell
was becoming meaner and we drove through continuous hail between Moorefield and the Jeffrey Reservoir. Most of the hail was tolerable (quarter sized), but as we got further north, large amounts of golfball and baseball sized hail pounded us on the nw wall of the large barrel shaped updraft (eastern supercell). At this stage of the chase, you just have to gut it out and keep going!!
Both supercells had long inflow bands and we could see very violent cloud motions above us. Tornadoes looked certainly likely. The western supercell cycled again as we got blasted by 70-80 mph south RFD winds. As we got to the crest of a hill, we could see a large cone tornado coming to the ground to our southwest. There was a hilltop that it had set down on and large amounts of soil/debris were being lifted. No doubt it was a strong tornado, because our winds started abruptly switching to
the northeast and gusting. I do believe this is first time I have ever seen 70 mph RFD winds back all the way to the northeast and gust at the same velocity. Brian and I are sure the other supercell had an effect as well. About 2 miles east of the road, Brian saw some finger-like vortices forming under the updraft. Very serious chasing now, especially with the increase of baseball sized hail. We were pounded extremely bad by the hail but somehow avoided losing the windshield. We lost sight of the western
supercell/tornado, but Brian said the eastern supercell was about to drop a big tornado. Very laminar collars were seen up the north side of the updraft now, and horizontal vorticity tubes were knifing into the updarft. Exciting times were starting
to unfold right in front of us!
We approached the Jeffrey Reservoir area with caution as the hail increased in
intensity. Little did we know that immediately east of the road through Conroy
Canyon a developing strong tornado was about to touchdown. We passed the
reservoir dam area, and could see alot of rapid cloud motions overhead and to
our east. As we turned to go east on Brady Rd., the tornado quickly started to
organize. We were due north of the tornado that was developing over the rough terrain on the Platte River bluffs. About a mile east of the dam at an intersection,
we pulled over for one of the best tornado spectacles we have ever seen. Our
timing could not have been any better as the truncated cone started to come down
to the ground about 6 miles south-southeast of Brady in E.Lincoln Co. Nebraska.
The time was 5:15pm when the tornado officially came to the ground. I called 911
to warn them of the tornado and that it may affect the town of Brady. Brian and I
scrambled out towards the road to get an unobscured view of the tornado that
was approaching from the south. The width of the tornado grew from about 100
yards to over 300 yards wide as it moved into the valley. At first, we were in the
direct path of the tornado, but the diffluence took over and directed the tornado
to the northwest! We were safe from the tornado, but not from the inflow jets
and occasional baseball hail that pounded Brian and I in the neck and back.
Brian even had some welts on his back from the hail. Winds were rapidly on
the increase, with gusts to 75 mph. The tornado was about a mile to our south
and heading right for the Jeffrey Reservoir dam. Power line "pops" were seen
as it moved across the open field, and into some high tension lines. Brian was
doing the video and I was clicking of pictures like mad!
The tornado close encounter grew even more up close and personal as the
winds roared from the east-northeast with gusts well over 80 mph. The tornado
passed within 1/2 to 1/4 of a mile from us. The utility poles were beginning to
lean hard to the north as the tornado plowed across the open field. Width of the
tornado was continuing to increase and was over 400 yards across. Based on
the appearance, the tornado was likely in the strong F2-weak F3 range as it
moved just east of the dam. The unmistakable roar was heard as the tornado
moved to the northwest. Several farmsteads were hit by the tornado as it moved
out of the bluffs into the valley. Large debris was picked up as it hit these homes
and farms. We continued to hold our position as the tornado crossed Brady Rd.
and moved towards the Platte River. It was at this point, when the tornado maxed out. The width was now approaching 1/2 mile, and large amounts of soil and now water were being drawn up into the vortex. This made the color of the tornado change to a brown and white swirl. This very interesting "blend" of colors made for some spectacular shots of the tornado that was moving away about 1.5 miles from us. We continued to shoot pics and video, but also stood there in awe as this strong
and impressive tornado crossed the Platte River valley. Interesting note: as the
F3 tornado and the inflow jets moved away from our location, the loud roar had
subsided, and we could no longer hear the tornado. Up until this point we could
hear the impressive roar. This maybe something to be researched in the future.
The contrast of the tornado was starting to lower so we packed up quickly and
headed for I-80. The tornado was moving northwest and west towards the town
of Maxwell. Brady was spared from the tornado, but Maxwell was now in the path,
as was the rest area on I-80. We made it to I-80, and lots of weekday traffic was
present. A few motorists had heard the warning apparently and had pulled over.
Many did not seem to notice the tornado about 1-2 miles south of the highway.
We were surprised to see how many motorists were still on the road. We could
see the rest area about 2 miles to our west, and lots of people were stopped
there. As the tornado moved west-northwest, it looked like this rest area was
going to be hit. We continued west, and the tornado starting to weaken slowly.
The tornado eventually shifted to more westerly component as the rope stage
was beginning. Fortunately this happened before it approached that crowded
rest area. We watched the dramatic rope stage start about 2 miles to the south
of I-80 very near the Platte River. Ironically the tornado dissipated very near the
Fort McPherson National Cemetery. The last sign of the tornado was a thread
vortex that dissapeared under the shearing out wall cloud. This was yet another
chase where we watched the tornado from start to finish, only this time it was
from a close perspective!
We pulled over and watched the dissipating tornado, and watched a new tight
circulation form about a mile to our east. This circulation formed just as the
Brady tornado dissipated. We watched this closely, but it apparently moved
north into cooler more stable air. We decided this one did not appear that it
was a threat, even though a tornado warning had been issued for this newly
developed circulation. We followed it for about 10 minutes, but it had the sign
of gusting out so we called it a chase. Just then, we started to see many other
chasers, some of which were with us southwest of Holdrege. We were fairly
well blitzed by the intensity of the chase, and decided we had best get the
video to the Weather Channel so it could be fed by satellite to the other media
outlets. We knew our video was good, but later on could not believe some of
the shots we actually got. Apparently, the media became obsessed with our
video too! An all out media blitz ensued, and our timing could not have been
any better; although we did need some rest after being awake for nearly 35
hours straight! The chase of the year for Brian and myself.
Editor's Note: With as close as that tornado was to that crowded I-80 rest area,
there needs to be some type of alert at rest areas on the Interstates that will
warn of tornadoes and huge hail. Last June, a rest area in Montgomery Co.
Illinois was hit head on by a F3 tornado. Several people were injured and a
truck driver was killed along I-55. The Brady tornado could have been a repeat
had it not veered away. I feel strongly that some type of communication from
local law enforcement needs to warn motorists at these rest stops. This may
be too isolated of an incident to matter, but it is just a thought....
Tornado Data: F3
Time: 5:15pm CDT to 5:35pm CDT
County: Lincoln NE
Injuries: 2...no serious injuries
Path Length: 12 miles
Movement: West-northwest at 25-30 mph
Max Path Width: 800 yards, mostly between 200-400 yards
Damage Track: 6 S-SE of Brady - 4 S Maxwell
