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May 21
May 21,
1998 SC Nebraska Severe Weather
Just like two days earlier, severe
storms were expected along the warm front
across the C. Plains. A deepening surface low was to remain anchored near
North Platte Ne and the warm front was to remain nearly stationary as well
during the day. A deep layer of shear was forecast across much of C. Nebraska
by evening, and substantial pressure falls were to enhance convergence on
the warm front. A mid-level jet max was also forecast to nose into Nebraska by
evening. All of the components were coming together for a severe weather and
tornado outbreak across S. and C. Nebraska. A moderate risk was outlooked
for much of Nebraska and for extreme N. Kansas. Tornadoes were expected
to become likely by evening according to the severe storm outlook. A fairly
strong cap existed across much of Kansas and extreme S. Nebraska during
the day. Deep moisture and unstable air also prevailed in these areas with the
dew-point temperatures in the upper 60's to lower 70's, and temperatures well
into the 80's and lower 90's. This airmass would work northward with time and
provide favorable inflow to the storms which were forecast to develop. The only
limiting factor was a shallow layer of cool air which may work into C. Nebraska
by late in the evening. A surface high was building southwest into Nebraska
from Iowa, and this may limit the eastward extent of severe storm development.
I had commitments earlier in the day,
but figured that a late show was in the
cards for this day. I noticed the strong cap and figured this would limit develop-
ment until evening. I started my chase by heading out I-70 towards C. Kansas.
I forecasted the area around Minden Ne as my target zone. This area was in the
favorable left front quadrant of the mid-level jet max , and was also the area in
which the mid and low level jets were to intersect by late evening. I had to make
the decision to commit to chasing the storms after dark since it was now just a
few minutes before sunset. I decided to go for it-especially given the history of
this area with warm frontal tornado outbreaks. If you don't believe me, take a
look at the events of June 6,1980 (the famous Grand Island tornado oubreak)!!
This area goes ballistic when conditions (which were in place this evening) are
ripe for severe storms and tornadoes!!
I was assisted by Brian Stertz in
St.Louis who kept me well informed with radar
updates and current conditions. I was near Manhattan Ks when Brian called me
and advised me that supercells were exploding near Mc Cook Ne. He advised
me also that the SPC issued a tornado watch for the southern 2/3 of Nebraska.
Too bad it was now after dark!! I pressed on (at a quicker pace mind you) to the
Nebraska border near Fairbury. About 15 minutes later, Brian called me again
to advise that numerous tornadic supercells were now lined up east-west from
near McCook to southwest of Hastings. The closest supercell to me at this time
was approaching the town of Minden. I was just 45 minutes away and could
easily intercept this storm moving e-ne at 35 mph.
I was near the town of Holstein Ne
(moooooooo) when the NWS in Hastings
issued a tornado warning for Adams and Kearney Co. I was right there !! Only
with a slight problem- there was very little cloud-ground lightning with this
storm. This made storm chasing very difficult as features were not easy to make
out. Also there was considerable fog in the area- not good!! I worked my way
to the area where the possible tornado was expected to track. Very gusty winds
at times approaching 50 mph fed into the storm. I still was unable to make out
the updraft base. I left the storm as several other storms were tracking up the
boundary towards Minden. At 9:25 pm , I was in the town of Minden and a new
tornado warning was issued for a tornadic storm near Axtell which was just 15
miles to my southwest. This supercell also was limited on electrical activity and
had very much the same characteristics as the storm I watched earlier. Brian
called me again to advise that the storms had tremendous hook echoes. He
also told me that the area around McCook was the breeding ground for all of
the worst storms. He advised me that more continued to fire in that area, and it
appeared to him that the storms maxed out between McCook and Minden. The
storms actually would shrink as they moved east- probably because of the cool
air advecting in on the gusty northeast winds.
I continued to track the storms until
late in the evening when storm complexes
soon formed as the warm air advection took over!! Some large hail and at times
an eerie fog was noted in and around the circulations. Since there was little in
the way of cloud-gorund lightning, not much was able to be seen by this chaser.
It was very exciting just from the number of tornadic storms which were moving
my direction throughout the evening. I did witness some ill defined lowerings
near the town of Funk Ne. I guess you could say that things were kind of funky
tonight in Nebraska [sorry- I couldn't resist!!]. I called it a night and spent the
night in Kearney. Sorry folks no pictures with this story for obvious reasons!!
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